Vital-sign degradation as a transfer trigger

System failure identification

A ward patient deteriorates over hours and is transferred to intensive care as an emergency. The trajectory was present in the chart throughout, and only the final value triggered escalation. The escalation is recorded as sudden because the measurement was discontinuous.
Data pipeline diagnostics

Early warning scores evaluate each observation independently against fixed thresholds. A patient worsening steadily inside the normal range scores zero at every step until they cross, at which point the change looks abrupt. A threshold rule is memoryless by construction and discards the patient's own history.
Predictive computational model

Score the trend rather than the value: rate of change across the last several observations, relative to that patient’s own admission baseline. Trajectory crosses long before absolute value does. Each patient becomes their own control, which matters where baselines differ widely.
Workflow integration

Add the trend as a second column beside the existing score rather than replacing it. Clinicians already trust the current score, and a parallel column earns trust without demanding it. Replacing a trusted score outright would cost adoption the addition does not.

System failure identification