Surge plans triggered by occupancy alone

System failure identification

Regional escalation activates at an occupancy threshold. By the time the threshold is met the surge is established, and the measures activated take longer to have effect than the situation allows. Measures that need days to take effect are started on the day they were needed.
Data pipeline diagnostics

Occupancy is a level. Escalation policy is written against it because it is the figure that was available, not because it is the figure with the most lead time. Availability determined the choice of trigger, and lead time was never considered.
Predictive computational model

Trigger on projected occupancy at a fixed horizon, computed from admission rate, discharge rate, and known scheduled demand. The trigger then precedes the condition. Scheduled admissions are known in advance and are simply not used as an input.
Workflow integration

Rewrite the escalation criteria themselves rather than adding a forecast alongside them. Two thresholds in one policy will default to whichever fires later. A policy with two triggers is a policy with the later trigger.

System failure identification