Batch 01 · ER triage
Ambulance diversion decided too late
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System failure identification
Diversion is declared once the department is already saturated. The decision arrives after the arrivals it was meant to prevent are en route, and the neighbouring hospital absorbs a surge it had no warning of. Diversion then propagates the problem outward rather than containing it.
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Data pipeline diagnostics
The trigger is a current occupancy threshold, a state variable with no derivative. It describes where the department is, never how fast it is filling or when it will be full. Two departments filling at very different rates report the same occupancy figure.
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Predictive computational model
Compute time to saturation from arrival rate, mean treatment time, and current census. Expressed in minutes remaining, it converts an occupancy number into a decision deadline. The derivative is already implicit in the arrival log and simply never computed.
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Workflow integration
Publish time to saturation continuously to the regional coordination channel, not only at the point of declaration. Neighbouring departments can then prepare before the diversion notice arrives. Advance warning is worth more to the receiving hospital than to the diverting one.